【今周刊】巴菲特25年來推薦了14次的投資法:指數化投資

本文轉貼自【今周刊】: https://www.businesstoday.com.tw/article/category/80401/post/202001020028

投資個別股票,常常「賺了指數、賠了差價」嗎?明明指數創新高,自己手上的個股卻連連破底、讓人懊惱?

本文整理1993年到2018年,這25年間,巴菲特推薦多次的投資方法:指數化投資,供讀者參考。

第1次推薦:1993年

「如果投資人願意長期投資,應該進行廣泛的分散投資,分散持有大量不同行業的公司股份。例如,利用定期定額的方式投資『指數型基金』。一個什麼都不懂的業餘投資者,往往能夠戰勝大部分專業投資者。」

第2次推薦:1996年

「大部分投資者(包括機構投資者和個人投資者)早晚會發現:投資股票最好的方法,是購買『管理費很低的指數型基金』。

投資指數型基金,在扣除管理費和其他費用之後,所獲得的淨投資收益率,肯定能夠超過絕大多數的投資專家。」

第3次推薦:1999年

約翰・柏格是「指數型基金」的創造者,他創立的先鋒(Vanguard)基金公司,首次開發出指數型產品,並因此成為全球最大的基金管理公司。

巴菲特一直向散戶推薦購買「指數型基金」,而且對柏格的著作《The Little Book of Common Sense Investing》(中文書名為:一本書學識投資),評價很高:

「這是每個投資者必讀的書籍,約翰・柏格為美國的投資者提供了更好的服務。」

柏格先生在這本著作中提到:「要想獲得『市場最大的可能報酬』,就必須降低買入和持有基金的成本。而散戶要做的,就是購買『持有成本低』、沒有『買進費用』或費用很低的基金,然後盡可能長時間持有。」

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第4次推薦:2003年

「我認為,對於大多數想要投資股票的人來說,申購成本很低的『指數型基金』,是最理想的選擇。」

第5次推薦:2004年

「過去35年來,美國企業創造出非常亮麗的成績。只要大家以分散且低成本的方式,投資『所有』企業,利用『指數型基金』,就可以輕鬆分享美國企業創造的優異業績。

然而,絕大多數投資者很少投資指數型基金。他們的投資成績大多只是平平,甚至虧得慘不忍睹。」

第6次推薦:2007年5月

「事實上,你買入一支『指數型基金』,就相當於同時買進美國『所有』的產業。如果你長期、持續、定期買入指數型基金,你可能不會買在最低點,但也不會買在最高點。」

「我個人認為,如果基金投資人的投資,每年要被管理費等吃掉2%,那麼你的投資收益要趕上或超過指數型基金,將會『十分困難』。散戶透過持有指數型基金,輕鬆投資,時間過得越久,財富積累得越來越多。」

第7次推薦:2008年5月

2008年5月,波克夏年度股東會上,一位股東提問:

「巴菲特先生、蒙格先生(巴菲特的合夥人),如果你只有30幾歲,沒有其他經濟來源,只靠一份全職工作謀生,根本無法每天進行投資。假設已經有一些儲蓄,足夠一年半的生活開支,那麼你的第一個一百萬,會如何投資?請告訴我們具體的資產種類和配置比率。」

巴菲特回答:「我會把『所有的錢』,都投資到一個低成本的、追蹤標準普爾五百指數的『指數型基金』,然後繼續努力工作。」

蒙格補充道:「那些『投資專家』,從這個金融體制中,獲得相當於賭場莊家的暴利。他們根本不會給你買進指數型基金的建議,因為這樣做他們根本賺不到錢!」

第8次推薦:2008年6月「十年之賭」開始

巴菲特個人和紐約一家管理350億美元資金的對沖基金管理公司,立下一個「十年之賭」。

巴菲特斷言,一支標準普爾五百「指數型基金」,未來十年內的收益,將會「跑贏」對沖基金公司精心挑選的5支對沖基金。

賭勝的一方,屆時會把贏得的百萬美元,捐贈給自己選擇的慈善事業。

「對沖基金整體表現相當不錯,但基金收取的費用拿走很大一部分回報。不管對沖基金經理表現是好是壞,他們每年向投資者收取『2%的管理費』,以及『20%的盈利』。」

「從長期平均值來看,投資者購買成本較低的『指數型基金』,肯定比購買『基金中的基金』獲得更多。」

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第9次推薦:2013年巴菲特致股東信「現金遺產90%放指數型基金」

「我以我宣揚的投資方式管理自己的資金:我有一筆遺產是將一些現金交給受託人管理,而受益人是我太太。(這必須是現金,因為我持有的全部波克夏股票,將在我的遺產結算後十年間全數捐給一些慈善組織。)

我對受託人的指示再簡單不過了:拿10%現金購買短期政府公債,另外90%投資非常低成本的S&P500『指數型基金』。

我相信遵循這些方針的信託,長期投資績效,將優於支付高費用、請經理人管理資產的多數投資人。無論他們是退休基金、法人還是散戶。」

第10次推薦:2014年巴菲特致股東信,重申「現金遺產90%放指數型基金」

「短期來看,企業股價雖有起伏,但長期來看大多是具成長的。最好的投資標的是,一個涵蓋市場範圍很廣的S&P500指數。

最好的買進時點是,用很長一段時間『持續』累積持股。

投資『指數型基金』,便不需要選擇特定企業,而是投資『所有企業』的綜合表現。長期來看,這會是一項很好的選擇,而且與一般共同基金相比,它的成本非常低。

共同基金的投資報酬率時常落後大盤。與其投資高成本的共同基金,低成本的指數型基金會是更好的選擇。」

「我留給太太的遺產信託基金,就是投資在10%的短期政府債,以及90%的S&P 500『低成本指數型基金』。這長期的結果,會比那些高費用的經理人或投資機構好多了。」

第11次推薦:2016年股東會「經理人多餘!買標普指數基金擺50年就可致富」

「避險基金收取受託資金總額的2%當管理費、還要求分享20%利潤,這樣的費率實在太高、讓人無法置信。

只要購買一檔追蹤標準普爾500『指數型基金』、然後擺上50年就可致富,但如此一來投資顧問就不會獲聘、也無法每年向投資人收取管理費。」

第12次推薦:2017年2月年度公開信「沒人可以打敗大盤指數型基金」

「在波克夏2005 年度報告中,我說所有專家主動投資策略表現,都會在幾年之後落後業餘坐著不動的投資人。各種『幫手』所收的龐大費用只會讓『所有』他們的客戶更糟,還比不上僅投資低成本、無管理的『指數型基金』。」

「隨後我公開賭 50 萬美金,賭沒有任何投資專家,選至少5檔對沖基金、在一段長時間後,績效能與無人管理的 S&P 500 指數基金匹敵… 我選了低成本Vanguard S&P500 ETF (美股代號VOO)作為我的參賽者。」

「隨後就沒有任何聲音了。儘管有『上萬名』專業投資人透過選股技術累積驚人財富,只有『一個人』-Ted Seides-接受我的挑戰。」

第13次推薦:2017年5月14日專訪如何存退休金?「別選股了、買指數型基金吧」

「持續買進追蹤美國標普500指數的『低成本指數型基金』,是打造退休計畫的最合理辦法;而且不管市況好壞,都要買進,特別是情況不佳之際。人們看到壞消息時,常會覺得今年或許別買了,不要這麼做,得繼續購入。長期而言,美國企業都表現不俗,投資前景可期。」

「不要選股,別以為自己會選股,明白這點將有優勢,事情不是這樣運作。購買指數型基金,可以避免挑選個股的風險;訣竅不是挑對的公司,而是透過標普500指數買進所有大公司,並持續以『低成本』購入。成本極為重要,必須壓低投資成本,減少管理費或佣金,才能獲得更多退休金。」

第14次推薦:2018年致股東信「十年之賭比賽結束!獲勝的是…?」

(前情提要)巴菲特認為,沒有任何高費用、高成本的避險基金組合,能夠在十年期間,超過低成本的「指數型基金」。

唯一敢站出來與巴菲特對賭的避險基金業者,挑出了5個基金組合,它們是「基金中的基金(funds-of-funds)」,總共涵蓋超過兩百支避險基金。兩百支避險基金,不是小樣本。

十年累積總報酬,五個避險基金組合分別是:21.7%,42.3%,87.7%,2.8%,27%。

S&P500指數型基金是:125.8%。如下表所示:

十年之賭,巴菲特贏了。

巴菲特說,「從這個十年之賭可以學到,投資最重要的是:簡單,避免『好動』。在過去十年間,避險基金組合中,超過兩百個避險基金經理人,肯定執行超過上萬次的『買進-賣出』。

這每一次的『進出場』決定,每個經理人肯定都『很努力』,而且每個人都相信,這樣的決策可以證明是有利的。

然而,數字會說話。『買進-持有』整體指數,打敗了上述兩百多個避險基金經理人。」

以上參考自:《不看盤我才賺到大錢》哈德先生的自由之道:2013巴菲特致股東信-心得《巴菲特的投資原則》

作者簡介_余家榮

花蓮人,義務役預官52期2梯。銘傳大學保險系畢業,但沒當過保險業務員。任職於證券業15年。喜歡旅行、閱讀、關懷流浪狗。 筆名「效率理財王」,部落格2011年成立,累積近300篇理財文章,亦擔任理財課程講師。專注於三大主題:應備存款、指數化投資、純保險。針對上班族常見的理財問題:存退休金、醫療費、買房、旅遊等,推廣「投入最少的時間、金錢」達成「最有效率」的成果及保障。
效率理財王 部落格:selfinsurance1911financenote.blogspot.com
FB粉絲專頁:www.facebook.com/selfinsurance1911

※原文:《巴菲特清單03》巴菲特25年來推薦了14次的投資法:指數化投資
 

在〈【今周刊】巴菲特25年來推薦了14次的投資法:指數化投資〉中有 212 則留言

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