【今周刊】別再說自己是長期投資人,卻在市場波動時急出場!

本文轉貼自今周刊:https://www.businesstoday.com.tw/article/category/80401/post/201806050019

希臘神話故事中提到,英雄尤里西斯(Ulysses)在特洛伊戰爭獲勝之後,返航途中即將經過海妖島嶼時,他知道自己很難抗拒海妖美妙歌聲的誘惑,因此命令船員將自己綁在船柱上,藉此成功抵抗了女妖動人的歌聲,最後才能回到家園和妻子團聚。

尤里西斯能夠成功抵抗女妖的誘惑,並非他的意志過人,而是他很清楚知道自己的弱點,同時事先做了預防的工作。

這也是投資人應該要學習的,面對投資,我們的大腦會抵抗不了市場出現的誘惑,做出錯誤的投資決策,這時我們可以效法尤里西斯的做法。

仿效尤里西斯的行為,應該怎麼做呢?很多人進場投資股票通常都會說:「我不擔心,因為情況不對的時候,我知道何時該退出市場。」或者說:「我是長期投資人,所以不會擔心短期股市的波動。」

但歷史經驗告訴我們,當事情真的發生不好的變化時,投資人很難維持原先的承諾或想法。研究發現,當人們面對外在環境與情況不斷改變的時候,很難光靠意志力去堅持原先的想法,而透過預先設定一個計畫,將自己控制在原先的想法上會是一個比較好的做法。

例如:銀行理財業務中的定期定額投資法,能夠讓客戶預先設定每個月時間一到,就固定投資一筆資金到自己設定的基金,這就是一種強迫投資的好方式。這就像希臘神話中的尤里西斯將自己綁在船柱上面一樣,這樣一來就能夠避免抗拒不了誘惑而做出錯誤決定。

大多數的人開始投資以後,市場若持續往上漲,就很容易堅持當個「長期投資人」,因為看到了獲利。但是如果市場下跌,甚至下跌幅度很大,很多人就無法堅持原先當「長期投資人」的想法。

這點光靠意志力是很難做到的,所以定期定額投資基金能夠減少我們對於進場時機的判斷(因為判斷幾乎都會是錯的),這樣才能夠克服心理層面所產生的錯誤判斷!

拿破崙曾經說過:「一個傑出將軍的特質就是,當周遭的人都陷入瘋狂情緒中,他還能夠冷靜得跟平常人一樣,做平常該做的事情。」

這段話不僅是一位傑出將軍應該有的特質,也是一位好的投資人應該有的態度。

下次當你聽到某個消息或新聞,想要立刻進行某項投資交易時,最好的辦法就是先出去外面走一走冷靜一下,讓自己有個二到三天的時間思考,或跟不同的人聊聊,通常這時候你就會發現自己並不那麼想進行該項投資交易了。

一般來說,衝動的投資決策都不會是好的決策。

本文作者: 副總裁的理財日誌

在〈【今周刊】別再說自己是長期投資人,卻在市場波動時急出場!〉中有 241 則留言

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