【今周刊】算準天體運行,算不出人性貪婪…股市慘賠1億,天才科學家牛頓破產啟示

本文轉貼自今周刊: https://www.businesstoday.com.tw/article/category/80401/post/201905270012

如果你已經小有財富了,即使別人因為靠著投資某支股票賺的錢比你多且快速又怎樣呢?永遠會有人賺的錢比你更多更快的,這並不是什麼你需要去在乎的事情。

                                                           —-查里曼格(Charlie Munger)

牛頓(Isaac Newton)是知名的科學家,其聰明才智自然不在話下,但即使聰明如牛頓也難逃人性的貪婪與忌妒,進而做出愚蠢的投資決策。

牛頓在英國南海公司成立的初期階段1713年就投資了他的第一筆資金購買南海公司的股票,此後很長的時間股價都沒有什麼亮麗的表現。

到了1720年初的時候,股價開始上漲,此時牛頓又加碼進場買了一些股票,很快的股價從當年1月的每股128英鎊,2月上升到每股175英鎊,3月更上升到了每股330英鎊,此時的牛頓已經獲利豐厚了,於是他在4月時心滿意足地賣出持股賺了一大筆財富。

但是,故事還沒有結束,南海公司的股價在牛頓賣出之後繼續往上狂奔,到了6月份股價竟然就上漲到了1,000英鎊,牛頓看到他「錯失」了2/3的獲利,心理懊惱不已,更糟的是,他看到他的同事朋友們因為繼續持有南海公司股票此時都比他更富有了。

牛頓不甘心的在當年7月份接近股價最高點附近重新進場,而且這次牛頓投入更多的資金,希望彌補之前所犯的錯誤,但是災難很快降臨,南海公司泡沫很快破掉了,股價大跌導致最後牛頓因此而破產,以現今的金額來計算的話,牛頓大概損失了400-500萬美金的金額(約合台幣1.3~1.6億)。

股市慘賠1億,天才科學家牛頓破產啟示

牛頓原本已經靠著投資南海公司獲取不錯的報酬,但依然抵抗不了心中的貪婪與忌妒,更無法忍受看到朋友賺得比自己還多。

牛頓的故事告訴我們,投資獲利跟你是否聰明並無太大關係,跟你是否能夠控制情緒的關係較大,所以要避免人性的貪婪與忌妒,就不要去跟別人做比較與討論投資,專注在自己的財務目標就好了。

在〈【今周刊】算準天體運行,算不出人性貪婪…股市慘賠1億,天才科學家牛頓破產啟示〉中有 359 則留言

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