股市近來受新冠肺炎影響大幅下跌,到底該停損殺出還是要加碼買入

從2020 年 2 月 21 日算起到3月 20 日收盤為止,因為新冠病毒疫情的影響,美國股市短短一個月下跌了35% 左右。基本已經可以確定是繼2008年的金融海嘯之後,又一個新的黑天鵝事件引發了全球性的股災。從下圖可以看到美國道瓊工業指數在2月21日時還有28,982點,但本週五3月20日收盤時已經跌到只剩19,161點,總共已經跌去了35%左右,可說美股已經陷入了熊市。

而面對這樣的股市風暴,雖說台股的跌幅稍小於美股,但大多數的投資者也都已虧損連連,也正在考慮是否應該及時停損認賠殺出,希望以下這篇文章可以提供給讀者作為投資決策時之參考:


近來證券市場一片哀鴻遍野,在美國和國外都是如此。新型冠狀病毒疫情持續延燒的問題已經開始陸續影響實體經濟。短期來看,全球各地受感染案例會繼續上升,商業活動會繼續萎縮,各大媒體的新聞報導壞消息不斷會繼續造成投資人的心理恐慌。

所以,我正在購買股票。如果股票價格繼續誘人,我很快就會滿倉。

為什麼?

很簡單,當別人貪婪時,你需要害怕。當別人恐懼時,你需要貪婪。現在,所有人,包括那些投資界的老司機都很恐懼。當然,那些帶有高槓桿的或者競爭力不強的公司確實應該恐懼。但是,對於我們這個國家這麼多優秀公司的前景產生恐懼是荒唐的。這些公司的盈利在短期會受影響,但是從今天開始的5 年、10 年和20 年後,很多公司會報出創紀錄的利潤

我需要強調一點:我無法預測股市的短期走向。如果你問我一個月,或者一年後股市往哪裡走,我根本不知道。但是有一點是肯定的,股市在經濟和市場信心真正復甦以前,會有大幅度上漲。如果你等到那時候再買股票,那就已經錯過了最佳的購入時機

在這裡和大家分享一些歷史。在美國經濟大蕭條時期,道瓊指數在1932 年7 月8 日跌到歷史最低的41 點。在接下來的一年中,美國經濟持續低迷,一直到1933 年3 月羅斯福當選成為總統後才開始復甦。但是那時候,股市已經上漲了30%。

在二戰時期,美國股市在1942 年4 月達到底部,那時候盟軍和軸心國誰能取得戰爭的勝利還很難說。1980 年代,購買股票最好的時機是滯漲最嚴重的時候。簡而言之,壞消息是投資者的好朋友:它讓你能夠以低價購買美國的未來

長期來看,股市能夠給投資者最好的投資回報。從20 世紀以來,美國經歷了兩次世界大戰,各種軍事對抗、大蕭條、經濟衰退和金融危機、石油危機以及水門事件。但同時,道瓊指數從66 點上漲到29,000 點。

你可能會覺得,任何一個投資者在20 世紀以來這個大牛市中都不可能虧錢。但事實上多數的股市投資者確實虧損了。那些不幸的投資者在感覺一切都很美好時買入股票,卻又在新聞報導一片悲觀時因恐慌的情緒而賣出股票。

今天,那些平倉握有現金的投資者感到最安心,他們錯了。他們選擇了一個非常糟糕的資產。從長期來看,現金會不斷被通脹侵蝕而貶值。事實上,政府為了應對目前的危機,很有可能會採取偏通脹的財政措施,這樣會使現金的貶值速度加快。

在接下來的10 年,股票的回報幾乎肯定會超過現金,而且會超過一大截。那些等待更好時機入場的投資者,他們犯了一個大錯誤:就像一個看後視鏡,而不是向前看的汽車司機。

我一般不喜歡對股市發表意見,同時我想強調:我完全不知道股市在短期內會向哪裡走。但是,我想在這裡告訴大家:現在就去買股票,立此為證。


上面這一篇文章,其實不是魔力斯寫的,而是股神–著名的投資傳奇華倫.巴菲特(Warren Buffett)於雷曼兄弟宣布破產後的2008 年10 月16 日在《紐約時報》上發表的一篇文章

原文如下:


Buy American. I Am. By Warren E. Buffett Oct. 16, 2008

Omaha

THE financial world is a mess, both in the United States and abroad. Its problems, moreover, have been leaking into the general economy, and the leaks are now turning into a gusher. In the near term, unemployment will rise, business activity will falter and headlines will continue to be scary.

So … I’ve been buying American stocks. This is my personal account I’m talking about, in which I previously owned nothing but United States government bonds. (This description leaves aside my Berkshire Hathaway holdings, which are all committed to philanthropy.) If prices keep looking attractive, my non-Berkshire net worth will soon be 100 percent in United States equities.

Why?

A simple rule dictates my buying: Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful. And most certainly, fear is now widespread, gripping even seasoned investors. To be sure, investors are right to be wary of highly leveraged entities or businesses in weak competitive positions. But fears regarding the long-term prosperity of the nation’s many sound companies make no sense. These businesses will indeed suffer earnings hiccups, as they always have. But most major companies will be setting new profit records 5, 10 and 20 years from now.

Let me be clear on one point: I can’t predict the short-term movements of the stock market. I haven’t the faintest idea as to whether stocks will be higher or lower a month — or a year — from now. What is likely, however, is that the market will move higher, perhaps substantially so, well before either sentiment or the economy turns up. So if you wait for the robins, spring will be over.

A little history here: During the Depression, the Dow hit its low, 41, on July 8, 1932. Economic conditions, though, kept deteriorating until Franklin D. Roosevelt took office in March 1933. By that time, the market had already advanced 30 percent. Or think back to the early days of World War II, when things were going badly for the United States in Europe and the Pacific. The market hit bottom in April 1942, well before Allied fortunes turned. Again, in the early 1980s, the time to buy stocks was when inflation raged and the economy was in the tank. In short, bad news is an investor’s best friend. It lets you buy a slice of America’s future at a marked-down price.

Over the long term, the stock market news will be good. In the 20th century, the United States endured two world wars and other traumatic and expensive military conflicts; the Depression; a dozen or so recessions and financial panics; oil shocks; a flu epidemic; and the resignation of a disgraced president. Yet the Dow rose from 66 to 11,497.

You might think it would have been impossible for an investor to lose money during a century marked by such an extraordinary gain. But some investors did. The hapless ones bought stocks only when they felt comfort in doing so and then proceeded to sell when the headlines made them queasy.

Today people who hold cash equivalents feel comfortable. They shouldn’t. They have opted for a terrible long-term asset, one that pays virtually nothing and is certain to depreciate in value. Indeed, the policies that government will follow in its efforts to alleviate the current crisis will probably prove inflationary and therefore accelerate declines in the real value of cash accounts.

Equities will almost certainly outperform cash over the next decade, probably by a substantial degree. Those investors who cling now to cash are betting they can efficiently time their move away from it later. In waiting for the comfort of good news, they are ignoring Wayne Gretzky’s advice: “I skate to where the puck is going to be, not to where it has been.”

I don’t like to opine on the stock market, and again I emphasize that I have no idea what the market will do in the short term. Nevertheless, I’ll follow the lead of a restaurant that opened in an empty bank building and then advertised: “Put your mouth where your money was.” Today my money and my mouth both say equities.

和眾讀者分享一下巴菲特寫這篇文章時的大背景(2008金融海嘯):

2008年9月15日,創立於 1850年的國際性金融機構雷曼兄弟控股公司(Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.)宣布破產,這件事也被視為 2008年金融海嘯的標誌性象徵。從2008 年1 月1 日算起到10 月份,美國股市下跌了40% 左右。也就是說如果你在2008年初投了10 萬塊進股市,過了10 個月已經只剩下6 萬塊。在這種情況下,巴菲特寫下了這篇經典。

今天,當我們回顧這篇文章,竟然發現歷史驚人的相似,這篇十餘年前的舊文,放在今天竟然一點違和感都沒有,仍然值得我們深思和學習。

整篇文章魔力斯就只有把『金融海嘯』換成了『新冠病毒疫情』。

最後,引用出自英國著名抒情詩人雪萊(Percy Bysshe Shelley,1792-1822)的著名詩句 與讀者們共勉:

如果冬天來了,春天還會遠嗎?

延伸閱讀:

魔力斯的指數化投資及資產配置計畫

在〈股市近來受新冠肺炎影響大幅下跌,到底該停損殺出還是要加碼買入〉中有 1,340 則留言

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