為什麼要做資產配置,資產配置可以幫助我安然度過股災嗎?

資產配置的經典案例之一:

一個小島上有兩家公司,一家是度假村,一家是雨傘販售公司,那麼雨天度假村沒生意,但雨傘賣得很好;晴天則度假村生意很好,雨傘乏人問津。因為這兩家公司長期獲利都是穩定成長的,所以如果你同時投資這兩家公司的話長期而言獲利也一樣會穩定成長,而且短期的獲利波動還會有部分被互相抵銷掉,這就是資產配置的好處。

「資產配置」,指的是根據自己的投資目標,適當調整各資產的比例,來符合自己的風險承受度與預期報酬,像是最簡單的資產配置就是股、債各持有50%的比例。如果你同時持有中華電信、遠傳電信、台灣大哥大等三家公司的股票,這叫做投資組合,不是資產配置,因為這些股票都有很相近的特性,沒有真的「分散風險」。

資產配置的用意,就是在控制風險

資產配置可以控制風險的方式有兩個。

一個是持有雖相關但更多元的資產,就算你都持有股票,但是同時持有科技股和公用事業類股,一個是積極成長的產業,一個是防禦價值的產業,兩者表現的時間不同,承擔的風險不同,你的風險就被降低了。

另一個是持有不相關或負相關的資產,上述的科技股和公用事業類股可能還是很高度正相關,幾乎是同漲同跌,只是會有「類股輪動」的輪流表現。但如果是同時持有股票和債券的話,你就很有可能看到一個漲、一個跌的現象,那麼短期波動就會被抵銷,讓你的整體資產波動大幅降低,但只要持有的資產都是長期穩定成長的,你的總資產自然也會長期穩定成長。

這就是資產配置的神奇功能:降低風險,但又能維持報酬。

但許多投資人在「避險」的過程中,往往承擔了更大的風險,那是本末倒置了,像是買台灣50反一(00632R)的ETF來避險的人,可能大部分都並不是真的了解這個商品的特性,結果持有超過一星期以上,根本誤用了這種只能短期使用的交易工具。

資產配置有兩個盲點

第一個盲點是:自以為可以預測未來。

簡單來說,一位投資人如果認為自己可以接受的資產最大跌幅是20%,那麼以過去的經驗來看,最適合這個投資人風險承受度的資產配置可能是股債比60%40%,照這樣的比例去持有股票資產和債券資產即可,並不需要去判斷將來股票會漲還是債券會漲、哪裡是高點或低點。

自以為可以預測未來有什麼問題呢?知名的避險基金經理人達里奧在自己的《原則》一書中就寫到,在1990年代,他認為市場不是會發生通縮就是會發生通膨,所以他將自己的資金分為兩部分,持有大量的債券來對通縮進行避險,持有大量的黃金來對通膨進行避險。結果,沒有發生通縮也沒有發生通膨,那段時間是20世紀美國景氣最好的時候,持有股票才是對的,但這當然是事後諸葛了。

其實同樣的錯誤,投資人一直在重複。金融海嘯之後,大多數的投資人犯了兩個錯,一個是認為量化寬鬆會帶來通膨,一個是認為在聯準會開始縮表之後利率將會上升,但這兩件事情也都沒有發生。

請務必記得:去猜會出現什麼風險而針對性的做避險,根本是在冒險。

資產配置不是去猜會發生什麼風險,恰好相反的是認定自己不知道會發生什麼風險,因此多元配置、堅守紀律。投資人可以持有50%的股票、30%的債券、20%的房地產,這三個資產互相的相關性不高,其中債券可以抗通縮、股票和房地產不至於受通膨影響太大,也都有長期穩定成長的歷史績效,等於大多數情況都考慮到了。

第二個盲點是:誤以為可以完全免除風險。

投資人要知道的是,各資產之間的相關性也不是絕對的,例如在大部分的情況下,股票和債券可能是負相關,但是還是無法完全避免在特殊情況下,股票和債券會變成正相關,發生同漲或同跌的狀況。以上面舉的例子來說,雖然大多數情況下,度假村和雨傘店的業績通常是一好一壞,但難免也會有例外,假使當天天氣很好,但卻突然下了一陣大雨,那麼兩家的生意就都很好;但是如果不幸遇到颱風,遊客都不來,則都一樣沒生意。

但是這不表示資產配置沒有用,資產配置還是可以幫你大幅降低風險。但畢竟投資風險不可能完全免除,投資人想得到更高的報酬仍然必須得承擔一定程度的風險,採用資產配置並且制定適當的投資策略,神奇之處在於不但能適當合理的降低風險,而且同時還能保有得到更高報酬的機會。

一位不做資產配置而覺得自己可以選股擇時交易並獲致遠高於市場平均報酬的投資人,面臨的是什麼風險呢?選股錯誤、擇時失敗、大多數時間不在市場裡面而錯失報酬、頻繁交易導致高成本。試想,有誰能預測得到油價會崩跌?又有誰能預測得到武漢肺炎的出現?更不可能有人能預測這兩件事情竟然同時發生了。

資產配置,要求你必須一直待在市場裡面,市場帶給你的報酬你可以完全獲得,但短期的波動風險又可以被不相關或負相關的資產所抵消,這樣難道還不夠嗎?

隨著市場行情的波動,例如股票大漲、債券大跌,則原來符合投資人設定的資產配置比例(例如股債比70%30%)可能會偏離成為股80%:債20%,這時候因為股票的比例已經高於自己可以承受的風險,就必須做「再平衡」,賣掉漲高的股票,買進跌低的債券,不需要知道高點、低點或未來趨勢,也能「低買高賣」。

資產配置的七大概念

對於資產配置的新手來說,以下幾個概念很重要:

  1. 資產配置是持有很不一樣,而不是很多的資產
  2. 持有的資產應該要長期穩定成長
  3. 各資產之間應該要不相關,甚至是負相關
  4. 每一個持有的資產,都要有獨特的角色
  5. 持有的資產種類:根據投資人的資產規模
  6. 各資產的百分比:根據投資人的風險承受度
  7. 定期進行再平衡,維持相同曝險程度

許多投資人往往是投資慘賠了,但問他為什麼會選擇這個投資標的時,卻又往往說不出個所以然,有些人之所以會買可能只是因為理專推薦、過去績效很好,但自己並不是真的了解投資的內容是什麼。

要知道,資產配置其實就是你自己的一家公司,你所配置的每一個資產就是你所聘請的一位員工,如果你是老闆,你會聘一個你不知道要他做什麼的員工嗎?肯定不會!你必須要很清楚在你的資產配置中,每一個資產功能是什麼?

對於一位新手來說,一般會建議採用股債各半的資產配置,主要的原因是新手通常不知道自己的風險承受度,因此採取最中庸的資產配置開始投資,就可以透過持有這樣的資產配置來認識自己。

不過如果是個性比較保守的投資人,不能承受短期較大的虧損,則建議股票的比例不要高於4成,反之如果是個性比較積極的投資人,也願意承受可能短期會有比較大程度虧損的風險,其實可以將股票所佔的比例拉高到7成。總而言之,這個比例必須投資人衡量自己對風險的忍受度以及對報酬的期望度,來做出最終的決定,沒有最完美的,只有最適合自己的。魔力斯因為對自己承受短期虧損的心理素質有信心,而且是十年以上的長期投資計畫,所以採用了股7債3的資產配置比例,但這比例不見得每個人都適用。

首先,你可以從歷史資料知道,股票、債券都是長期穩定增值的資產,但短期則無法保證,因為投資一定會有風險,只要你的期望報酬和風險是自己可以接受的。

其次,你也知道了長期平均下來股票波動較大、成長性高,而債券波動相對較小、有保護效果。這就像是股票是一位很有生產力的員工,可以幫公司賺很多錢,但是情緒低落的時候就慘了;債券則是一位很穩定的員工,雖然生產力不是頂尖,但是大多數時刻都可以讓公司有基本的業績。你也會知道,股票和債券為負相關,但偶而也會有正相關的時候,如果公司只靠股票來快速成長,會承擔巨大的風險,但是只靠債券也許很穩定,卻會錯失成長。

知道這些概念之後,如果你是一位已經有投資組合的投資人,不妨拿出來好好檢視一下:你真的很清楚自己所聘請的這些「員工」,到底在你的公司裡面做什麼工作嗎?

每一個資產都有自己的功能角色

接下來,我們就要討論到更細節的事情了,例如現在已經知道了股票和債券可以組成一個基本的投資組合,那麼債券又該用什麼債券呢?稍微有點概念的人會知道,債券可以按照投資期間長短來分,也可以按照信用評等來分,信用評等最高的是公債,其次是投資等級的公司債、非投資等級的高收益(垃圾)債,而這些債券也都有長期、中期、短期。到底該聘哪個資產來當自己員工呢?

再回到一個前面所提過的概念:資產配置的功能是降低風險,所以放入資產配置的商品不應該讓自己承擔了更大的風險。

在這種情況下,非投資等級的高收益(垃圾)債有很高的違約風險,就不適合。此外,債券年期越長波動幅度越大,二十年期的公債波動情況甚至跟股票指數不相上下。

那麼,是不是選擇短期公債最沒有風險呢?其實短期公債的功能更像是現金,本身幾乎沒有波動,也就無法有效緩衝股票資產的短期波動。比較適合的是混合債券,像是代號BND這樣的債券ETF,信用評等上幾乎避開大多數有風險的債券,而年期上則不會太長也不會太短,可以適度抵銷股票資產的波動。

所以,當你清楚每一個來面試的員工有什麼特性,你自然就會知道應該聘哪一位員工。以下列舉幾個資產配置投資人常會選用的美國公債及混合債ETF

‧短期美國公債:台股00694B(富邦美債1-3),美股SHY(iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF)
‧中期美國公債:台股00697B(元大美債7-10),美股IEF(iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF)
‧長期美國公債:台股00679B(元大美債20),美股TLT(iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF)

.美國混合債:美股BND(Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF)

以下比較IEF、TLT、BND近12年來的報酬率和波動率,以結果來說TLT的波動率最大,但報酬也是最高的:

2008-01 ~ 2020-03 期間不同債券ETF的報酬率及波動率
資產組合期初投資期末淨值年化報酬率波動率
TLT$10,000$25,767 8.03% 14.26%
IEF$10,000$18,748 5.26% 6.50%
BND$10,000$16,091 3.96% 3.68%

魔力斯認為,長年期美國公債雖然有波動率高的缺點,但因為與股票負相關的特性,此波動可與股市的波動互相抵銷,所以配置追蹤美國長期公債指數的ETF其實還是可以考慮的選擇,例如台股可以投資00679B,而美股則可選擇TLT

股票的種類也是一樣很多,有大型股、小型股、價值股、成長股、高股息、低波動股,根據市場的不同還分為成熟市場、新興市場等等。對於新手來說,對於這些資產的特性和功能可能還未完全瞭解,其實使用最具有代表性的股票ETF就可以了。

台灣投資人可能對台股市場最熟悉,就用0050這檔ETF來投資股票資產,美股則可選擇S&P 500指數的ETFSPYVOO)或是全市場指數的ETFVTI),而想直接投資全球股市的投資人則可以選擇VT,用一檔ETF投資全球股市。

對的資產配置可以讓你安穩度過股災

最後,回到股災這件事情上。資產配置能不能讓你安然度過股災呢?能,也不能。如果你持有一個股債比是九比一的資產配置,卻只能承受5%的總資產最大跌幅,你的資產配置與你的風險承受度有懸殊的落差,你會恐慌到將資產在股災中賣出,很容易做出錯誤的決定。

但是如果你持有的是一個跟你風險承受度相當的資產配置,股災來了你也謹守紀律做再平衡,讓自己的資產不會過度偏離原本規劃的風險屬性,你當然還是會面對總資產的下跌,你當然還是會看到資產的大幅波動,但是你更能夠撐過去,繼續迎接資產的下一波成長。

以最近三個月(2019-12-31~2020-03-31)遭逢十年難得一遇的股災情況來說,如果持有股、債各半的投資組合(橙線50%VTI50%TLT)還能維持0.65%的正報酬,而只持有股票指數的的投資組合(藍線100%VTI)則下跌了超過20%,同時股債各半的投資組合所承受的波動率(標準差)也相對低了許多,這就是資產配置可以讓你更安心的具體展現。

2019-12-31 ~ 2020-03-31 期間不同股債配置比例的報酬率及波動率
資產組合期初投資期末淨值報酬率波動率
VTI:100%$10,000$7,916 -20.84% 24.07%
VTI:70% TLT:30%$10,000$9,205 -7.95% 15.92%
VTI:50% TLT:50%$10,000$10,065 0.65% 11.36%

上面的圖表顯示的是2020年初以來因受疫情影響股市大幅下挫情況下,各資產組合的表現。讀者可能會問:雖然只持有股票的資產組合在股災期間虧損最嚴重,那是否代表只要以後能迎來股市大多頭時代,它的長期報酬也一定會最好?很令人意外的答案並非如此,我們可以來回顧一下相同的資產組合(每年再平衡一次)在2008年6月份~2019年12月份期間的表現,在過去超過十年的期間,其實這三種資產配置組合的報酬率以股7債3的表現勝出,不過領先的幅度並不大,倒是波動率可以看出股債配置有很明顯的優勢,由此例讀者應該可以清楚感受到資產配置的神奇之處:資產配置被抵銷掉的其實只有你不想要的波動率而已,而總報酬率卻不見得會比較差:

2008-06 ~ 2019-12 期間不同股債配置比例的報酬率及波動率
資產組合期初投資期末淨值年化報酬率波動率
VTI:100%$10,000$29,515 9.79% 15.47%
VTI:70% TLT:30%$10,000$30,277 10.04% 10.21%
VTI:50% TLT:50%$10,000$28,937 9.61% 8.78%

不懂資產配置原理與概念的人,因為害怕股災還沒結束,未來還有可能會繼續下跌,所以會說:資產配置有什麼用呢?不如我先把所有資產通通賣掉,等股災過了再來重新投資。

試問,什麼時候才是最好的投資時間呢?有誰知道哪裡是谷底?股災過程中,跌很兇也漲很猛,會不會等你信心恢復想要再投資的時候,你其實是花了更高的價格去買進自己原本持有的資產?

這種建議並不值得參考,第一是沒有人真的知道低點在哪裡,所有說自己知道的人都在騙你。第二是他叫你賣掉,但是你不會知道什麼時候要買回來,這種半套的建議只會讓你離開市場而無法獲得原本該有的報酬。等到市場情緒恢復了,你還會覺得有投資價值嗎?還是一直惦記著原本可以用50元買的東西為什麼現在要80元這麼貴?

結論:認識自己比找到完美的配置更重要

許多人會花很多時間在找到一個最完美的資產配置,但是不同時期各個資產的表現本來就不同,更何況前面有提過,資產之間的相關性也不是絕對的,所以不可能有一個完美的資產配置,但是每個人都應該要好好瞭解自己,如果沒有一個比較精準的風險承受度,又怎麼能夠規劃自己的資產配置及投資策略呢?

對於毫無投資經驗的投資新手而言,其實現在可以選用的投資工具比以前更多更好,而且投資成本也已經比過去便宜了不少,再加上股災影響讓股票價格大幅下挫,是很適合開始進行第一次投資的時機,投資這件事總是越早開始越好。但因為新手對資產的特性以及自己的風險承受度都不是很清楚,一般的資產配置建議是最簡單的股債各半,或是按照投資人的年齡等於配置債券的百分比這樣的方式來進行,例如投資人年齡如果是30歲左右的話,則可以配置30%的債券和70%的股票。而至於投資標的的選擇,在台股市場可以使用005000679B,在美股市場可以使用VTITLT。此外對台灣的投資人來說,因為投資美股的成本相對較高,建議初期先以台股慢慢累積資產,等到總資產有超過一百萬台幣以上的規模,再來考慮投資美股也不遲。

對於已經有經驗的投資人,建議檢視一下自己的投資組合,務必要確保,你知道所聘請的每一位員工角色是什麼?要怎麼幫你賺錢?

同時,最近劇烈的股市下跌可能已經讓資產配置偏離了原先設定的比例,可以適時進行再平衡,對於一位有經驗的指數化及資產配置投資人來說,這可能是現在唯一需要做的動作。

本文參考:https://etfs.tw/asset-allocation/


延伸閱讀:

魔力斯的指數化投資及資產配置計畫

在〈為什麼要做資產配置,資產配置可以幫助我安然度過股災嗎?〉中有 329 則留言

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