為什麼絕大多數的人投資都賠錢?

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本文轉貼自：https://vocus.cc/tarcy2801/5c610b72fd89780001c9657e

最近看了一篇論文，原文標題是”Do Stocks Outperform Treasury bills?”，直白的翻譯就是股票表現優於國庫券?這是跟一般人認知差非常多的一件事，絕大多數的投資理財書籍或觀念給讀者灌輸的觀念都是股票是最好的投資選擇，長期來看股票的報酬率也是遠遠勝於債券或其他投資選項，那這份論文到底是怎樣得出這份結論?真的很令我好奇。有興趣的自己去看一下論文的內容，看一下作者的研究動機那些因素，我直接把結論分類給各位看。

  1. 雖然長期來看美國股市的報酬率是遠勝於美國國債，但如果從個股層面來看卻不是如此。在1926年至2016年期間出現在CRSP資料庫中約26,000家普通股來看，只有不到一半在買入並持有的投資策略下出現正的報酬(包含股息再投資)，只有42.6%的普通股在買入並持有的投資策略下的報酬率是優於投資一個月國庫券。整體市場的強勁表現是因為非常少數的普通股產生的超大回報。 Exxon Mobile, Apple, Microsoft, General Electric, and International Business Machines這五家公司就佔了總報酬的10%，報酬率最高的90家普通股，就貢獻了總報酬的一半，最高的1100家普通股就超過股市整體總報酬了。(見圖一)
  2. 4%普通股創造的總報酬就等於同期間股市的總報酬，也就是剩下的96%普通股總報酬只約當於一個月國庫券的總報酬。
  3. 這份研究顯示即使撇開常見的交易成本&費用或投資人的行為偏差，積極管理的投資組合通常還是表現不如市場，因為只要錯過了那少數的大贏家，你就很難追上市場了。
  4. 盲目分散投資，報酬率會很差，因為整體股市的回報主要是由少數股票所產生的。所以要盡量集中投資，但這前提是你要有可靠的辦法挑出戰整體比重不到4%的贏家股票，而是否有這種可靠的辦法，這個關鍵問題仍然存在。
圖一、股市總報酬累積圖

以上研究應該可以很合理的解釋為什麼大多數的投資人總是輸多贏少，這可能多少有些原因可以怪罪給分析技術或操作技巧，但是最主要的關鍵因素是因為股市中能產生好回報的普通股比例太低，這間接就使投資的成功率變低了，如果再加上作者省略掉也很常見使投資人輸更慘的交易成本&費用、行為偏差等因素，我想成功的機率又變得更低了。所以看到這邊你應該知道主動投資這個遊戲的結果本來失敗的機率遠遠高過於成功的機率。因此奉勸還沒進入投資領域的朋友要考慮一下，投資其實跟玩遊戲一樣。在玩任何遊戲之前，通常你都要先了解遊戲規則，如果連怎麼玩都弄不清楚，你怎麼可能成為贏家?除此之外，還有一個關鍵就是遊戲的難易度，如果太難過關的遊戲，也不見得值得玩。所以從上面的論文可以知道，基本上你的投資成果要贏過根本不費腦筋的投資一個月國庫券的難易程度其實非常低，只有4%左右機率可以挑到贏家股。知道了要獲得好投資成果的難易程度之後，你還要知道自己的程度在哪，跟報考高普考一樣，如果你知道錄取率只有4%，除了你要很認真讀書之外還要有點運氣，讀的還要考出來。最後，要贏得主動投資的難易程度是你改變不了的，你能改變的只能想辦法提升自己的程度，讓自己有一個持續又可靠能挑選出那4%贏家的方法，否則你應該放棄主動投資，改採用指數化投資，賺取整體市場的報酬就好。

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