【讀書心得】漫步華爾街的10條投資金律

本書內文有發現幾處翻譯或資料錯誤,例如:

圖3指的應該是指數為上漲的機率而非漲幅

|金律 5|資產配置須符合你的狀況–其中的一段:

比較妥當的應對措施是稍微改變一下你的投資組合,這種作法稱為「調整」(rebalancing)

以上翻譯的不夠專業到位,讀者不容易理解。應為:

將投資組合調整回預設的比例,這種作法稱為「再平衡」(rebalancing)


魔力斯個人的讀書筆記重點如下:


|要點 3|了解風險與報酬之間的關係:

事實上,過去五十年來,證券市場上的投資人遇到好幾次嚴重的熊市。圖2說明了股票下跌的幅度與股票市場回升所需的時間。

|金律 1|現在就開始儲蓄,決不拖延
儲蓄,越早開始越好。時間比時機更加重要。你常常會聽到別人找各種藉口,拖延退休的理財規劃,你可別跟他們一樣。早一點開始理財吧!
 
|金律 2|養成存錢習慣
殘酷的事實是,你的資產增加了多少,主要取決於你存了多少錢,而儲蓄需要自律的能力。一旦無法養成定期存錢的習慣,無論投資報酬率是五%、一○%、一五%,到頭來都對資產的增加沒有幫助
大多數住豪宅、開名車的人都不是有錢人;一般有錢人反倒都不住在精華地段的豪宅區裡,而且他們通常學歷不高,也非繼承大筆財產、更不是中了頭彩的幸運兒。這些有錢人的財富主要來自努力工作的生活態度與規律儲蓄的自律能力。他們不像大富豪,生活簡樸,但不會完全犧牲生活品質。他們不會只為了財富而累積財富、也不會放棄任何合理的收益。他們能確實嚴守預算、控制消費,定期將部分收入存起來或拿去投資。
 
|金律 3|保持手上足夠的現金
每個人都需要準備一些應急錢,投資於一些低風險流動性高的資產上,才能應付意想不到的醫藥支出或待業階段。如果你有醫療險和失能險,那你保留三個月內的應急基金大概就足夠了。
 
|金律 4|善用各種節稅管道
因為內容寫的是美國的環境,這一章對台灣的投資人就比較沒有參考價值
 
|金律 5|資產配置須符合你的狀況
決定投資人整體報酬率的主要因素(九○%)並不是他們購買了什麼債券或股票型基金,而是他們的資產配置方式。
基本上只要投資指數(下圖範例為道瓊工業指數)超過10年,平均年化報酬率就能達到:1.24% ~ 19.35%,最算是運氣最差的情況都不會虧損
 
圖17顯示的比例不一定適合所有人,但在決定適合個人的資產配置方面,承受風險能力顯然是關鍵,尤其是在遭逢股災的時期。
 
|金律 6|分散投資風險
需要高達一百種不同的股票,才能將投資股票的風險降低到分散投資的程度。
建議財力雄厚的投資人,除了投資國內指數型股票ETF,也能投資其他世界經濟體的股票。
建議許多收入不高的人「顧好基本原則」。你光是投資國內股票指數,就能有不錯的收穫了
定期定額投資,可以確保整個投資組合不會都在價格上漲的期間買進,藉此降低(但不能避免)投資的風險。可以讓你在不景氣的熊市仍有資金和勇氣繼續投資。
 
|金律 7|別讓費用吃掉獲利
對所有的金融商品與服務而言,成本是重要的一環,很少有投資人每天在股市頻繁進出,還能賺到錢的。
對資產還不夠雄厚的台灣投資人來說,最佳投資台股方式就是低成本指數型基金(ETF),例如:0050/006208/0056/00692等
 
|金律 8|對市場保持謙卑
記住這句話:「市場懂的比你多。」無論是你或其他專家,都無法長久打敗市場。「不要以為自己懂的比市場多,不可能有人比市場厲害。
假如你可以對所有市場預測都充耳不聞,長期下來,你的投資績效一定能夠超越許多投資人。
沒有人能掌握進出市場的時機。知名投資家伯納德‧巴魯克(Bernard Baruch)曾經說過:「如果有人說自己總是有辦法在不景氣的時候出場、在景氣好的時候進場,他一定是個騙子。」要確保在進出場切換的瞬間還待在市場的方法,就是不間斷投資。
就美國股市交易而言,專業投資人約占證券交易所交易量的九○%。更確切的說,現今的專業投資人就是市場。事實是他們在扣除費用之前確實賺取到市場報酬
華倫‧巴菲特是傑出的商人,不是選股能手。他是一位非凡的企業領袖,他經常積極參與自己投資的企業,也是提倡大多數人靠著投資指數型基金賺更多錢的先驅之一。
 
|金律 9|投資指數型基金
作者不建議買ETF是對美國人的個人退休帳戶和稅制而言。台灣投資人則更適合買ETF,因此魔力斯整理對台灣投資人來說比較適用的投資工具
書中圖28股票指數型ETF建議選擇的替代:台股0050,美股VTI,美股VT
圖29債券指數型ETF建議選擇的替代:台股00679B(00697B及00694B相對規模較小),美股TLT、IEF、BND
代號
名稱
近一年漲幅
(不含息)
追蹤指數名稱
元大美債20年
+29.6%
ICE美國政府20+年期債券指數
元大美債7-10
+11.2%
ICE美國政府7-10年期債券指數
富邦美債1-3年
-0.1%
花旗美國政府債券1-3年期指數

資料時間:2020/04/08 by 魔力斯

另外,作者建議的資產配置組合除了股票與債券這兩種最普遍的組合以外,還建議也應該多納入不動產,但是不建議納入黃金–作者說:『閃閃發光的黃金一直以來都象徵著國際局勢動盪時期的避風港,也能當作手錶和珠寶首飾上的閃耀裝飾品。不過,在理性的現實世界中,投資黃金起不了多大的作用,既賺不到利息,也賺不到股息。』
或許是因為作者撰寫此書時,投資黃金還沒有足夠好的指數化投資工具的緣故,所以作者並不贊同,但對此魔力斯卻有不同的見解,經過回測分析近15年的資料,在年化報酬率差異沒有很大的情況下,同時投資股票(VTI)、債券(TLT)、黃金(GLD)的組合波動率是最低的,反之同時投資股票(VTI)、債券(TLT)、不動產(VNQ)的組合波動率卻最高。所以根據實測結果,魔力斯認為黃金(GLD)比不動產(VNQ)更適合納入投資組合,原因也很合理–黃金價格和股票的相關性低於不動產。況且正常情況下,台灣投資人通常已經擁有實體的不動產,甚至可能不動產資產淨值還遠大於股票加債券,那就更無必要再持有證券化的不動產資產了。
2005-01 ~ 2020-04 期間不同資產配置比例的報酬率及波動率
(每年定投1萬/每年再平衡一次)
資產組合
期初投資
期末淨值
年化報酬率
波動率
VTI:70% TLT:30%
$10,000
$390,162 
9.14% 
9.60%
VTI:50% TLT:25% VNQ:25%
$10,000
$369,107 
8.48% 
11.71%
VTI:50% TLT:25% GLD:25%
$10,000
$368,183 
8.45% 
8.70%

 

|金律 10|避開投資人的盲點
這一章魔力斯認為最重要,作者講述了很多一般投資人在投資上最容易犯的錯和最容易產生的誤解:一些你必須了解的行為偏誤,幫助你避免犯下常見的投資錯誤。例如:
投資人可能會為了避免賠本和承認自己犯的投資錯誤,而不願意賣掉下跌的股票。另一方面,投資人通常都願意拋售手上的好股票,因為這麼做,能讓投資人享受到投資正確的錯覺
其他還有很多,建議讀者尤其是投資新手應該買來好好研讀一番,可以有助於避免犯下大多數投資人都會犯的錯
 
指數投資的常見問題
作者到各地旅行,與投資人交談時,他們總會提出一些問題和批判。指數投資策略不僅簡單,還能帶來收益,許多人卻覺得難以置信。作者特別列出了一些問題,以及他的答覆,其中有一個問題讓魔力斯特別受到啟發:
「如果每個人都採用指數投資策略,結果會怎麼樣呢?」
作者的回答摘要:
指數投資策略的成效,有一部分取決於我提過的效率市場。股市能即時反映重要消息的原因是,一旦股價出現偏離股票價值的情況,爭相逐利的專業投資人就會一窩蜂的買進或賣出,帶動股價上漲或下跌。如果專業投資人只採用指數投資策略,不積極買進或賣出,那麼由誰來做買賣,以確保市場價格即時反映最新消息呢?
當指數型基金占總市值的九○%時,我就會開始擔心。不過,我認為這種情況不會發生。就像許多兒童相信世界上有聖誕老人,市場上也有許多投資人相信自己的投資表現能勝過市場。而急於求利的專業投資經理人會對消息不靈通的投資人畫大餅,讓投資人以為能獲得可觀的報酬,以收取更高昂的管理費用。
 
對於作者的答案,魔力斯深以為然,但也從此將對市場上的主動投資人抱持敬意,因為他們是效率市場必不可缺的重要組成,如果沒有他們孜孜不倦的追逐投機,股價也不能獲得快速修正。就正如星戰大戰(Star Wars)裡面對於宇宙中原力的設定:
原力的光明面與黑暗面必須互相對抗也要彼此共存並且最終取得平衡,任何一方太過強大對這個世界都不是好事!
 

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    •Kompresör mıhlı ise atmosfer tankının patlamalara karşı dayanaklı bir bölmede bulunduğunu kontrol et.

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    •İkiden fazla kulaklı var ise düşerli olarak gruplanmış
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